Economic Scenario Analysis Dashboard

Scenario Controls

Fed Funds Rate 4.50%

Target federal funds rate set by FOMC

0% 4% 8%

Inflation (CPI YoY) 3.20%

Current year-over-year CPI reading

1% 3.5% 6%

Unemployment Rate 4.10%

Initial civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE)

3% 5.5% 8%

Model Notes

Unemployment projection uses Okun-style approximation: each 1pp rise in the fed rate above 2.5% adds ~0.15pp to unemployment over 12 months.
CPI projection applies a 30% pass-through persistence and an 8bp rate drag per 100bp of fed rate.
Recession probability uses a logistic function calibrated to historical rate-unemployment gaps.

Projected Unemployment (12mo)

--.--%

vs current 4.10%

Projected CPI YoY (12mo)

--.--%

vs current 3.20%

Retail Sales Growth (12mo)

--.--%

Advance retail sales YoY

Recession Probability

--%

12-month horizon estimate

Fed Funds Rate (%)

Unemployment Rate (%)

Indicator	Soft Landing	Stagflation	Recession	Current